Stoke up the furnaces!

Today, I wouldn’t hold anything except anti-dollar (GLD, FXE, PMPIX – down short term, up long term) and/or high div payers and/or big EPS surprisers. That’s about it – and just remember there’s a big reckoning coming at the first real hint of a slowdown (GDP, PMI, capacity utilization, etc.) so you’d better be ready to pull that trigger faster than the guys that do it for a living. Per CNBC, the hope is that 4Q GDP will surprise to the upside. But then others suspect that hope may finally have run out…

Because, as the article above states, sales tax receipts (and Wal Mart’s same store sales) are showing a marked drop-off in consumption (consumption = 70% of U.S. economy). Fallen how far and how fast? Well that’s why they play the games isn’t it? (Saints LOSE; Cowboys WIN -- and spit too; Bears SQUEAK Tampa Bay!?).

The other HUGE issue as I’ve said many times before is THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT which at present pace ($865B) will be $1T in a year or two. Think of how much money those Japanese, Chinese and Saudi bond holders must pump, year after year after year, into U.S. Treasuries to keep this leaky, rusty, old (USA economy) battleship afloat. The Chinese already hold $1T of U.S. debt. Do you think they want another $1T and another… and another? Already the Chinese govt. has stated publicly there will likely be a shortfall of new jobs in 2007 (some part below the 2,500,000 they need to prevent rioting in the streets – I’m not kidding).

Then you have Paulson and Bernake, the “I’ve got mine, now go fuck yourself” twins of American govt. (or is it Armageddon?) finance. They keep harping that China must “float” its currency… Translation: the U.S. dollar must diminish in real value by at least another 30-40%. The fact it’s depreciated 98% since we stopped gold pegging in 1972 just isn’t enough apparently! BUT note that the decline must be orderly, precipitated by myriad speeches about how great the economy is; how low unemployment is, because we can all work for $12/hr and work until we fall over dead from old age, with no health benefits, and a bankrupt Medicare system; and how we can simply “grow” (or is it inflate?) our way out of all our problems, if only we cut taxes a bit more (for Paulson and Bernake), depreciate a bit more, offshore a bit more, and of course elect another generation of profligate Republican earmarkers -- orderly, of course, so Wall Street has ample time to adjust – so the only suckers holding the bag are YOU and ME.

So keep buying those stocks Goldilocks! It’s only paper. “All the numbers are so much bigger now! Gee, that means we’re all richer, right?” Yes, that’ what they said in the Weimar Republic, and we all know how that turned out – meet your new leader, Adolph! So from my vantage, this (impending) disaster is not too big, not too small, but just about right! So stoke up the furnaces because somebody’s going to have to burn for this one. Probably them terr’ist liberals… it was them what dun it!